My Sentiment
My sentiment:
I’m very cautious at the moment. I’m not supremely bullish. I think that the reinflation trade is waning (oil, gold, dryshippers --- I wouldn’t expect 100% gains in a week or a month anymore). Timing when you buy is very important. We could see lots of market downside in the next 6 months. We could be in the eye of the hurricane of the mortgage mess. Cramer is calling for a housing bottom. I’m just very very cautious because I think that he’s right or the battle hasn’t even started. Consumer confidence is up, and mutual fund flows are positive. Drying up liquidity here in the US would impact the entire world. There is still very easy long term hold money to be made by buying fundamentally undervalued companies with positive catalysts such as uplisting, factories coming online, etc. That is what I plan to capitalize on. Still waiting on E-Trade.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4MiAIdU_9uUcFgCB9YU-WQu_ad9T6wEYouQ51efbb5Q2OI7ipNX5iO6NT8PaUM3766LAu_e19FRQF4RYw1dNiqujWut1-TA9kCGWlJXEMVnja_oqtSY32ToiOpegXDsnqWVSHAn8mCjy0/s1600-h/CreditSuisseResetMarch09.jpg
Mid 2011 is when all of these loans surface and get worked through. Could all this mess be priced into the market? I think it used to be. Now, I’m questioning the validity of the US rally. I still think there are a lot of companies selling cheaper than they should be. But, there are a lot that are becoming overpriced and we aren’t out of the woods…. And I think we could slide back in. Remember, you aren’t playing the actual worth of the companies, you are playing the public’s perception of the worth of the companies and if numbers start looking bad and CNBC starts being obnoxious, things could go down. All the bank dilution and uncertainty will prevent them from soaring back to previous highs, but I still think financials are cheap as a whole. Plus, there is still a lot of dumb money on the sidelines. But, it could easily be smart money if we start crashing. But, in my opinion, this dumb money supports a thesis for the bottom of the housing +-10% of current home prices. When there is a lot of money, it doesn’t sit around for long especially when I see eminent inflation. People buy stuff. I’ve replayed and retalked myself through the possible scenarios. This is what I’ve come up with as far as a general outlook:
Short the dollar
Short US Treasuries
Long China
Mixed Oil, Gold, and commodities, but long term bullish oil
Long global markets? Not so sure. Be picky about which ones you go long at this point.
It's not where you are right that counts, it's the ability to be less frequently wrong than everyone else.
Glen
I’m very cautious at the moment. I’m not supremely bullish. I think that the reinflation trade is waning (oil, gold, dryshippers --- I wouldn’t expect 100% gains in a week or a month anymore). Timing when you buy is very important. We could see lots of market downside in the next 6 months. We could be in the eye of the hurricane of the mortgage mess. Cramer is calling for a housing bottom. I’m just very very cautious because I think that he’s right or the battle hasn’t even started. Consumer confidence is up, and mutual fund flows are positive. Drying up liquidity here in the US would impact the entire world. There is still very easy long term hold money to be made by buying fundamentally undervalued companies with positive catalysts such as uplisting, factories coming online, etc. That is what I plan to capitalize on. Still waiting on E-Trade.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4MiAIdU_9uUcFgCB9YU-WQu_ad9T6wEYouQ51efbb5Q2OI7ipNX5iO6NT8PaUM3766LAu_e19FRQF4RYw1dNiqujWut1-TA9kCGWlJXEMVnja_oqtSY32ToiOpegXDsnqWVSHAn8mCjy0/s1600-h/CreditSuisseResetMarch09.jpg
Mid 2011 is when all of these loans surface and get worked through. Could all this mess be priced into the market? I think it used to be. Now, I’m questioning the validity of the US rally. I still think there are a lot of companies selling cheaper than they should be. But, there are a lot that are becoming overpriced and we aren’t out of the woods…. And I think we could slide back in. Remember, you aren’t playing the actual worth of the companies, you are playing the public’s perception of the worth of the companies and if numbers start looking bad and CNBC starts being obnoxious, things could go down. All the bank dilution and uncertainty will prevent them from soaring back to previous highs, but I still think financials are cheap as a whole. Plus, there is still a lot of dumb money on the sidelines. But, it could easily be smart money if we start crashing. But, in my opinion, this dumb money supports a thesis for the bottom of the housing +-10% of current home prices. When there is a lot of money, it doesn’t sit around for long especially when I see eminent inflation. People buy stuff. I’ve replayed and retalked myself through the possible scenarios. This is what I’ve come up with as far as a general outlook:
Short the dollar
Short US Treasuries
Long China
Mixed Oil, Gold, and commodities, but long term bullish oil
Long global markets? Not so sure. Be picky about which ones you go long at this point.
It's not where you are right that counts, it's the ability to be less frequently wrong than everyone else.
Glen
posted by Glen Bradford at
8:45 PM
3 Comments
